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Trade, Jobs and Growth: Facts Before Folly
Trade.
Our new President rails against it, unions denigrate it, and unemployed blame it. And not without reason. On trade, jobs and economic growth, the US has performed less than stellar.
Let's look at the data, but then drill down a bit to the nuances. Undirected bluster to reduce trade deficits and grow jobs will likely stumble on those nuances. Rather, an appreciation of economic intricacies must go hand-in-hand with bold action.
So let's dive in.
The US Performance - Trade, Jobs and Growth
For authenticity, we turn to (by all appearances) unbiased and authoritative sources. For trade balances, we use the ITC, International Trade Commission, in Switzerland; for US employment, we use the US BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics; and for overall economic data across countries we drawn on the World Bank.
Per the ITC, the United State amassed a merchandise trade deficit of $802 billion in 2015, the largest such deficit of any country. This deficit exceeds the sum of the deficits for the next 18 countries. The deficit does not represent an aberration; the US merchandise trade deficit averaged $780 billion over the last 5 years, and we have run a deficit for all the last 15 years.
The merchandise trade deficit hits key sectors. In 2015, consumer electronics ran a deficit of $167 billion; apparel $115 billion; appliances and furniture $74 billion; and autos $153 billion. Some of these deficits have increased noticeably since 2001: Consumer electronics up 427%, furniture and appliances up 311%. In terms of imports to exports, apparel imports run 10 times exports, consumer electronics 3 times; furniture and appliances 4 times.
Autos has a small silver lining, the deficit up a relatively moderate 56% in 15 years, about equal to inflation plus growth. Imports exceed exports by a disturbing but, in relative terms, modest 2.3 times.
On jobs, the BLS reports a loss of 5.4 million US manufacturing jobs from 1990 to 2015, a 30% drop. No other major employment category lost jobs. Four states, in the "Belt" region, dropped 1.3 million jobs collectively.
The US economy has only stumbled forward. Real growth for the past 25 years has averaged only just above two percent. Income and wealth gains in that period have landed mostly in the upper income groups, leaving the larger swath of America feeling stagnant and anguished.
The data paint a distressing picture: the US economy, beset by persistent trade deficits, hemorrhages manufacturing jobs and flounders in low growth. This picture points - at least at first look - to one element of the solution. Fight back against the flood of imports.
The Added Perspectives - Unfortunate Complexity
Unfortunately, economics rarely succumbs to simple explanations; complex interactions often underlie the dynamics.
So let's take some added perspectives.
While the US amasses the largest merchandise trade deficit, that deficit does not rank the largest as a percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP.) Our country hits about 4.5% on that basis. The United Kingdom hits a 5.7% merchandise trade deficit as a percent of GDP; India a 6.1%, Hong Kong a 15% and United Arab Emirates an 18%. India has grown over 6% per year on average over the last quarter century, and Hong Kong and UAE a bit better than 4%. Turkey, Egypt, Morocco, Ethiopia, Pakistan, in all about 50 countries run merchandise trade deficits as a group averaging 9% of GDP, but grow 3.5% a year or better.
Note the term "merchandise" trade deficit. Merchandise involves tangible goods - autos, Smartphones, apparel, steel. Services - legal, financial, copyright, patent, computing - represent a different group of goods, intangible, i.e. hard to hold or touch. The US achieves here a trade surplus, $220 billion, the largest of any country, a notable partial offset to the merchandise trade deficit.
The trade deficit also masks the gross dollar value of trade. The trade balance equals exports minus imports. Certainly imports represent goods not produced in a country, and to some extent lost employment. On the other hand, exports represent the dollar value of what must be produced or offered, and thus employment which occurs. In exports, the US ranks first in services and second in merchandise, with a combined export value of $2.25 trillion per year.
Now, we seek here not to prove our trade deficit benevolent, or without adverse impact. But the data do temper our perspective.
First, with India as one example, we see that trade deficits do not inherently restrict growth. Countries with deficits on a GDP basis larger than the US have grown faster than the US. And further below, we will see examples of countries with trade surpluses, but which did not grow rapidly, again tempering a conclusion that growth depends directly on trade balances.
Second, given the importance of exports to US employment, we do not want action to reduce our trade deficit to secondarily restrict or hamper exports. This applies most critically where imports exceed exports by smaller margins; efforts here to reduce a trade deficit, and garner jobs, could trigger greater job losses in exports.
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/9586377
Why Students Should Earn Their Degree at an Online College
As instructors across the higher education sector continue to harness technology for use in their classrooms, many students are turning to the ever-expanding and innovative online college to earn a degree. Students who attend an online college are able to take advantage of a number of benefits that their fellow ground school students can't. Additionally, an online college is a popular option for non-traditional students, working adults, or students who want to go back to school, but have time constraints.
Amidst the hustle and bustle of the day-to-day routine, non-traditional students need options. And, with significant expansions in technology and access, working students and adults are being given the options they need to go back to school and earn a coveted college degree. Let's take a look at some of the benefits an online college offers its students and the ways an online college caters to its working students and busy professionals.
Accessibility: One of the most touted benefits of online college has been its accessibility factor. Online education is singlehandedly making education accessible to students nationwide who are unable to attend ground schools. Because the Web is accessible from virtually anywhere, students can access their coursework, interact with their classmates and pose questions to their teacher, with an ease never seen before.
Flexibility & Convenience: By and large, the flexibility of an online education is unparalleled. With an online degree program, there's no conforming your schedule to the schedule of a ground school with fixed class times. Instead, online learners set their own schedule and their own pace of learning. An online college is so convenient because students can "go" to class whenever they have the time. Your course schedule and the pace at which you complete your degree are your own.
Variety of Courses and Degree Programs: Online college, like a ground college, offers the same diverse choice of classes and degrees. Are you a student who wants to earn an associate's degree in accounting? Or, are you a student who has already earned a bachelor's degree and would like to earn a higher-level degree such as a master's or PhD? Online college gives you all of those options, just like a ground school, but with more ease and flexibility.
Student Centered Learning: If you've ever sat in a ground school classroom and felt a little lost in the middle of a lecture or too shy to ask a question, fear no more. Enrolling in an online degree program provides students with a student-centered approach to learning. Not only can an online student learn at his or her own pace, they also have the opportunity to virtually pose questions to instructors via email, instant messaging, or a discussion board. Additionally, because all of the course material is accessible online 24/7, online college students can re-watch podcasts or re-read lecture notes as many times as they need to.
Lower Tuition Costs: It's no secret that tuition costs have been on the rise and while both online and ground schools have experienced spikes, attending an online college is definitely more cost-effective. Not only is tuition typically lower at most online colleges, but online students will also save on travel/commuting expenses and textbooks costs (as most course material and required reading will be made available online for free or for significantly less than at a ground school).
Completing a Quality Degree Program More Quickly: Because of the accessibility, flexibility and convenience of online degree programs, students are able to learn at their own pace and, often, complete their degree program more quickly than their ground school counterparts. Instead of taking the traditional four-years to complete a bachelor's degree, online college students often complete their bachelor's degree in far less time.
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/5672165
